Recently, China Daily’s Chinese website Shuo Tianxia reported on the keynote speech delivered by Yu Miaojie, President of LNU and Fellow of the International Economic Association, at the international conference Evolution of the International Trade System in Russia.
Yu Miaojie, President of LNU and Fellow of the International Economic Association, was invited to attend the 22nd International Conference on ‘Evolution of the International Trade System: Prospects and Challenges’ hosted by Saint Petersburg State University in Russia, where he delivered a keynote speech at the plenary session. The conference aimed to analyze the current challenges and future trends facing the international trade system amid complex geopolitical dynamics and global economic transformation.
The following is the full text of the speech:
1.China’s Position in the Global Economy
Professor Yu Miaojie began by outlining China’s current economic landscape. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s GDP reached approximately 134 trillion yuan, around 20 trillion US dollars. Its total import and export volume approached 6 trillion US dollars, with foreign exchange reserves standing at 3.2 trillion US dollars, contributing roughly 30% to global economic growth. China has set a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, to be achieved primarily through domestic consumption expansion and investment, supported by proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary measures. Government expenditure is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, alongside market-stimulating measures such as tax cuts, fee reductions, and interest rate adjustments.
In terms of medium-to-long-term development strategies, China is transitioning from ‘high-speed growth’ to ‘high-quality development’, guided by the new development philosophy of innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing. China’s R&D investment has reached 2.68% of GDP, surpassing the OECD average, with focused advancements in key technological fields such as artificial intelligence, information technology, new energy, advanced materials, life sciences, biotechnology, and transportation equipment manufacturing. Environmental sustainability has become a strategic priority, with China committing to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This includes increasing the share of non-fossil energy consumption from the current 19% to 25% by 2030. Regional development emphasizes synchronized urbanization and industrialization, narrowing the urban-rural gap, and promoting balanced growth across all regions. Despite trade restrictions imposed by some countries, China remains steadfast in advancing economic multilateralism through platforms like the Belt and Road Initiative, striving to build an open global economy.
2.China’s Approach to Addressing International Trade Challenges
Professor Yu analyzed the underlying logic of tariff disputes, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations. He pointed out that the prevailing narrative — which suggests China imposes high tariffs on the US while maintaining low tariffs on American goods, thereby causing trade deficits and manufacturing job losses — represents a serious misjudgment. The decision-making process for manufacturing location ultimately depends on comparative advantage rather than tariff rates. Considering that China runs a deficit in services trade with the US and that its industrial subsidies comply with WTO rules, America’s trade restrictions, aimed at suppressing China’s industrial upgrading, are neither reasonable nor acceptable.
It is noteworthy that bilateral trade with the United States accounts for only about 10% of China’s total foreign trade. Even in the most extreme scenario of losing this share, the impact on China’s overall trade structure would remain limited. China’s stance is clear: If the U.S. insists on trade confrontation, China has the confidence and capability to respond effectively.
China is implementing a comprehensive opening-up strategy characterized by greater scale, broader scope, and deeper level of engagement. Greater scale focuses on export diversification, enhancing supply capacity and competitive advantages to provide the world with high-quality, reasonably priced products. Simultaneously, China is significantly increasing imports to meet domestic consumption upgrades and supply chain optimization, leveraging platforms like the China International Import Expo (CIIE) to diversify import sources and expand trade in services such as education, transportation, and cross-border e-commerce. And broader scope emphasizes the development of the digital economy and green trade. The digital economy already constitutes a significant part of China’s economy, while exports of green products are growing rapidly, injecting new vitality into both Chinese and global trade. And deeper level refers to promoting institutional openness. China is working closely with the WTO and other international organizations to advance reforms in trade rules, technical standards, and regulatory frameworks. This aims to improve global governance from macro to micro levels, ensuring that economic globalization progresses along a mutually beneficial and win-win path.
3. China’s Engagement with the Global South
China’s vast market of 1.4 billion people, with per capita GDP exceeding $13,000, generates substantial import demand for agricultural products, energy resources, and industrial goods from Global South countries. This demand aligns well with these nations’ comparative advantages, presenting significant trade opportunities.
Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China provides infrastructure development support without attaching any conditions, a distinct contrast to traditional Western aid models. Drawing on its domestic success in infrastructure construction (including its high-speed rail network), China offers valuable technical expertise and development models to Global South countries. This cooperation effectively enhances their economic efficiency and connectivity levels.
China’s outward direct investment generates employment opportunities for host nations while facilitating technology transfer. Investments in labor-intensive industries create substantial job opportunities for local populations, while knowledge-sharing enhances productivity levels.
China’s development model demonstrates an alternative pathway distinct from traditional Western approaches, proving that developing countries can achieve leapfrog development through their own methodologies. This new modernization paradigm squares with China’s Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), collectively forming a strategic framework for China’s engagement with the Global South.
4. Prospects for International Economic Cooperation
On international economic relations, Professor Yu highlighted China’s sustained trade growth in recent years stems primarily from comparative advantages and economic complementarity with partner nations. To achieve sustainable international economic cooperation, Professor Yu proposed the following suggestions:
To start with, politically strategic coordination through multilateral frameworks serves as the cornerstone for stabilizing international relations. Secondly, accelerating certification processes and addressing logistical bottlenecks are imperative to facilitate trade and foreign direct investment flows. And then, the promotion of local currency settlements represents a strategic shift to reduce dollar dependency while expanding bilateral trade volumes. Last, educational collaboration, particularly joint degree programs between universities, holds unique strategic value by cultivating mutual understanding and developing globally-minded business leaders, thereby laying the groundwork for future investment and commercial partnerships.
When it comes to China-U.S. trade relations, Professor Yu insightfully pointed out that America’s fundamental concern lies in its reluctance to witness China’s successful transition from lower-end to higher-end segments of the global value chain. He contended that both nations should adopt a cooperative strategy focused on expanding the overall economic ‘cake’, which would prove more beneficial than first imposing restrictions to shrink the economic aggregate and then negotiating its distribution. This collaborative rather than confrontational approach enables both countries to fully leverage their respective strengths, unleash their developmental potential, and achieve long-term mutual benefit. As Professor Yu concluded with philosophical wisdom: “There are no ultimate victories nor fatal defeats. What truly matters is the courage to keep moving forward.”
