Wang Ziwen

                                                                                                       School of Life Sciences

Abstract: Biological invasion is one of the global environmental problems faced by human beings in the 21st century. At present, the situation of biological invasion in China is very severe. As an important part of China's Northeast Economic Zone, Liaoning Province's international exchanges and cooperation have increased year by year, which has received increasing influence by the invasion of foreign creatures. Datura stramonium and Solanum rostratum are two main invasive plants of Solanaceae in Liaoning Province, which are difficult to be removed after successful invasion, posing a great threat to the local ecological environment and biodiversity. In order to evaluate the habitat adaptability of D. stramonium and S. rostratum in Liaoning Province, I collected their geographical distribution data in Liaoning Province through field investigation and database query, and studied the potential suitable distribution area and their main environmental impact variables in current and future climate scenarios using Biomod2 combination model. The main results are as follows: (1) In the model selection, the combined model evaluation index AUC and TSS of the two invasive species reached 0.95 and 0.90, which reached the excellent standard and were higher than any single model, showing better accuracy. (2) The significant environmental impact variables of D. stramonium and S. rostratum are different. The top clay (0-30cm) content (22.6%) and slope (20.7%) have higher contribution to the distribution of D. stramonium, followed by annual precipitation (11.2%), top pH (10.6%) and the highest temperature in the hottest month (6.9%). Soil organic carbon content (68.5%) contributes the most to the distribution of S. rostratum, followed by precipitation in the wettest month (21.7%), and other variables have lower contribution to S. rostratum. (3) Under the current climate scenario, the high suitable area of D. stramonium are mainly distributed in the northwest, central and southern parts of Liaoning Province, while its middle and low suitable areas show relatively random and are distributed in most of the province, while its unsuitable areas are generally located in the eastern and central parts of the province. Under different future climate change scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70 and SSP-585) for different periods (2050s, 2070s and 2090s), the total suitable area of D. stramonium show a generally increasing trend with its middle and high suitable areas increasing and its low suitable areas decreasing. (4) Under the current climate scenario, the high-suitable areas of S. rostratum are generally distributed in the western and southern parts of Liaoning Province, the middle-suitable areas mostly appear around the high-suitable areas, the low-suitable areas are generally distributed in the central and western parts of Liaoning Province, and the unsuitable areas are generally located in most areas in the eastern and central parts of Liaoning Province. In the future climate scenario, the total suitable area of S. rostratum also showed an increasing trend. However, its specific area change is different from D. stramonium. The suitable areas of S. rostratum for the future climate change are all low-suitable, while its high-suitable areas and medium-suitable areas are reduced, and S. rostratum will shift eastward and southward in the future. This study found that the combined model can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of two invasive plants of Solanaceae; The main influencing factors differ between the two invasive plants of Solanaceae, but both of them are expanding under the future climate scenario. All these suggest that the invasive plants in the existing distribution areas should be eradicated and the changes of the suitable areas of the two invasive species should be taken precautions.

Read the full article here:       基于组合模型的辽宁省外来入侵植物曼陀罗和黄花刺茄适生区研究.pdf